columbia basin climate

These extensive and ongoing research activities have also been materially supported by the long-term outreach and education programs of CIG, which have, from the outset, fully recognized the transboundary nature of the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003; Miles et al., Citation2000) and responded by promoting sustained, long-term interaction with CRB researchers and stakeholders in the United States and Canada (Hamlet, Citation2011). After fitting three-parameter generalized extreme value probability distributions to the annual peak flow data, the daily 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (under natural flow conditions) are estimated for both historical and future periods. Full article: An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Climate Adaptation. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. 0 Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. These results point to extensive, landscape-scale transformations in hydrologic behaviour associated with climate change. Future of Aquatic Flows in the South Central U.S.: Toward Sustainable An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climat . : From Icefield to Estuary: The Columbia Basin / Du champ de glace l'estuaire : Le bassin du Columbia, 6 Use of products and information by stakeholders, water professionals, and researchers, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555, http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:2(91), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:6(333), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313:SOTEHS>2.0.CO;2, http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2, http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=39123, http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/climatechange/reports/index.html, http://www.fws.gov/landscape-conservation/lcc.html, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/biblio/1112011.html, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, Simulated daily evapotranspiration from all sources, actual evaporation from all sources (canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soil, transpiration, and snow sublimation), natural vegetation, no water limit, but no vegetation stomatal resistance, Extreme 7-day low flow value with a 10-year recurrence interval. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. The CBCCSP also provided a more thorough assessment of hydrologic extremes via the HD scenarios, providing ranges of these values that were more geographically specific as opposed to an estimate of the central tendency from the CD approaches used in the WACCIA. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the evening. The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of other members of the CBCCSP research team at the UW including Lara Whitely Binder, Pablo Carrasco, Jeffrey Deems, Carrie Lee, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Tyler Kamstra, Jeremy Littell, Nathan Mantua, Edward Miles, Kristian Mickelson, Philip W. Mote, Erin Rogers, Eric Salath, Amy Snover, and Andrew Wood. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? Application Process How to Apply Sign-up for Program Updates These areas are so cold in winter (DJF average on the order of -10C temperature) that a change in temperatures of 23C has relatively little effect on seasonal snow accumulation in the 2020s and 2040s. Changes in PET (PET3, see Table 2) and AET (see Table 2) are shown in Fig. About 50 of the 80 sites evaluated show monthly NSE scores greater than or equal to approximately 0.7 (good to excellent fit). In most basins with substantial snowpack, elevated soil moisture in winter accompanies warming in the simulations resulting from more infiltration from rain in the fall and winter months (Fig. The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. Right panel: Historical and projected future watershed classification (rain-dominant, transitional (mixed-rain-and-snow), snow-dominant) for 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds, based on the long-term mean of the SWE2PR for each watershed. For each streamflow location (and its associated contributing basin area), a set of identical products is available on the study web site (CIG, Citation2013b). Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. In 2006, The Act relating to Water Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin [hereinafter HB2860] (2006) directed the WDOE to study water resources systems in Washington and identify specific projects in which to invest up to US$200 million provided by the bill to improve water resources infrastructure or management systems. As an integrated priority, the Trust has integrated climate resilience into its strategic priorities by supporting: wildfire risk reduction and job creation through the Columbia Basin Wildfire Resiliency Initiative energy retrofits, repairs and alternative energy generation at community-purpose buildings through the Non-profit Sustainability - Building Support Grants The data is accessible for decision makers, researchers, students, professionals and the public. Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections. An understanding of the basin's transboundary nature has also informed CIG's hydrologic modelling studies, which have consistently provided complete coverage of the Canadian and US portions of the basin. Click the download link to get the current station data. 'High Uncertainty' is indicated when Mahalanobis Distance is >1. A low pressure system slowly moving offshore is forecast to spin moisture into the Columbia Basin Sunday as it meanders closer to the Southern Oregon Coast. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. 8). The smallest of these sub-basins is about 500km2 (approximately fifteen 1/16 degree VIC cells), and the largest encompasses most of the CRB (approximately 620,000km2 or about 18,800 VIC cells). Mostly cloudy, with a high . Sites without modified or natural flow estimates are shown in yellow. National Weather Service The two time periods also represent very different patterns of decadal climate variability in the historical record, providing a useful test in the context of simulating a changing climate. These lands are those without any sort of status that provides government protection, such as an indigenous territory, or that have not . Data from the CBCCSP are currently supporting two CIG studies funded by the LCCs and the CSC, including a study of impacts to wetlands in the PNW (funded by the North Pacific LCC and the PNWCSC) and a study assessing climatic and hydrologic extremes and their effects on ecosystems over the western United States (funded by the PNWCSC). Key products from the study include detailed summary data for about 300 river sites in the PNW and monthly GIS products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. 1990 level modified streamflow 19281989. Even with substantial cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect our climate to continue changing over the coming decades. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . The VIC model has been widely applied in climate change studies at both the regional scale (e.g., Christensen & Lettenmaier, Citation2007; Lettenmaier, Wood, Palmer, Wood, & Stakhiv, Citation1999; Maurer, Citation2007; Maurer & Duffy, Citation2005; Payne et al., Citation2004; Van Rheenen, Wood, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004) and global scale (e.g., Adam, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009; Nijssen, O'Donnell, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2001). Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. The approach used a refined version of the methods established by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), which created a hybrid historical meteorological dataset based on three primary data resources: a) monthly HCN data in the United States and the similar AHCCD datasets in Canada, b) daily data from the cooperative station network in the United States (co-op stations) and similar data from Environment Canada, and c) a monthly climatology (19712000) for precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperatures at 30 arc-second resolution produced using the PRISM (Daly, Gibson, Taylor, Johnson, & Pasteris, Citation2002; Daly, Neilson, & Phillips, Citation1994; DiLuzio, Johnson, Daly, Eischeid, & Arnold, Citation2008). NWAC Softball: Lower Columbia splits double-header at Yakima Valley to Although studies addressing natural climate variability remain an important research focus for the group, over time research assessing the impacts of anthropogenic climate change has become an increasingly important need. 3099067 Post-processing of the primary VIC model output (see Table 2) was carried out to produce a number of specific products discussed in the following sections. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. Additional meteorological forcings needed for hydrologic model simulations (e.g., net incoming long- and shortwave radiation, dew point temperature, etc.) Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). 95 0 obj <> endobj These annual peak daily flows are then ranked and assigned a quantile value using an unbiased quantile estimator based on the method of Cunane (Stedinger, Vogel, & Foufoula-Georgiou, Citation1993). These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Procedure, developed at the University of Arizona (Yapo et al., A water resources simulation model developed by Labadie (, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria. Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% Using the VIC model, the study has projected impacts for the Great Busin and the Columbia River, Missouri River, and Colorado River basins, and assessment of impacts in California is underway at the time of writing. 5 Howick Place | London | SW1P 1WG. These approaches are also useful for avoiding biases in the streamflow simulations that result from systematic errors in gridded precipitation or temperature data. Three base flow parameters (Ds max, Ds, Ws) associated with the non-linear baseflow curve from the third soil layer (Liang et al., Citation1994) were used to calibrate the model. These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. Act relating to state agency climate leadership, S. 5560, 61st Legislature (WA 2009). This daily disaggregation technique sometimes introduces an undesirable discontinuity in the bias-corrected daily values at the beginning and end of months. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Source: NOAA Fisheries. However, our goal in this case was not to reduce the range of uncertainty by selecting a smaller group of GCMs. Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates. Schnorbus, M. A., Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin John Day basin century climate change: +1.5 degF day temperature, +3.2 degF night temperature, -0.4 inch (2%) less precipitation. Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, Methods, and Summary of Key Results, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences , University of Notre Dame , Notre Dame , Indiana , USA, Technical Service Center 86-68210, US Bureau of Reclamation , Denver , Colorado , USA, Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, and Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States, Climate Change and Future Wildfire in the Western United States: An Ecological Approach to Nonstationarity, Crossscale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate, Drought Conditions Maximize the Impact of High-Frequency Flow Variations on Thermal Regimes and Biogeochemical Function in the Hyporheic Zone, Fine-scale environmental DNA sampling reveals climate-mediated interactions between native and invasive trout species, Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia, Geomorphological principles for phased sediment management, How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections?

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